美国国家应急规划情景（2006）中文简译之引言
写在前面：情景构建是近年来公共安全管理领域最热门的专业方法之一，对应急准备规划、应急预案管理和应急培训演练等一系列应急管理工作实践具有不可或缺的支撑和指导作用，对企业的应急、连续性和危机管理也意义重大。为学习情景构建方法和推进企业级情景构建项目，我在今年3月份组织了一个公益翻译小组（小组成员征募链接： https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ua-JgZUIUY4xHEbsN8qiXQ），对一些主要的情景构建资料进行翻译。7月份前后，翻译小组成员陆续将翻译文稿发送给我，近期我会将这些资料审校完成，陆续在公众号发布。
刘铁民在《重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究》一文中指出：《美国国家应急规划情景》（2006）由美国国土安全部组织了近1500名应急管理官员和来自大专院校与科研单位的科学家，经过一年多的调查研究，认真总结回顾了之前发生在美国和其他国家的重大突发事件典型案例，尤其是对未来可能发生重大突发事件的风险做了系统分析与评估，对可能发生事件的初始来源、破坏严重性、波及范围、复杂程度以及长期潜在影响作了系统归纳和收敛。经过反复多次评审和修改，总结提出15种重大突发事件情景是美国面临最严重的风险和挑战，这些情景被列为国家应急准备战略最优先考虑的应对目标。为强调对应急预案编制工作的指导性，又进一步把这15种重大突发事件情景整合集成为具有共性特点的8个重要情景组（如下表），使应急准备的重心更加聚焦。
| 重要情景组 | 国家预案编制情景 |
|---|---|
| 1.爆炸物攻击—使用自制爆炸装置进行爆炸 | 情景12：爆炸物攻击—使用自制爆炸装置进行爆炸 |
| 2.核攻击 | 情景1：核爆炸—自制核装置 |
| 3.辐射攻击—辐射扩散装置 | 情景11：辐射学攻击—辐射学扩展装置 |
| 4.生物学攻击—附病原体附件 | 情景2：生物学攻击—炭疽气溶胶 情景4：生物学攻击 情景13：生物学攻击—食品污染 情景14：生物学攻击—体表损伤皮肤疾病 |
| 5.化学攻击—附各种毒剂附件 | 情景5：化学攻击 情景6：化学攻击—有毒工业化学品 情景7：化学攻击—神经毒气 情景8：化学攻击-氯容品爆炸 |
| 6.自然灾害—附各种灾害附件 | 情景9：自然灾害—大地震 情景10：自然灾害—大飓风 |
| 7.计算机网络攻击 | 情景15：网络攻击 |
| 8.传染病流感 | 情景3：生物学疾病暴发—大流行性流感 |
本篇为《美国国家应急规划情景》（2006）中文简译的前言部分。以下译文由我负责最终统一审校定稿，如译文中有任何不准确或理解错误的地方，都是由于我的原因造成，与诸位翻译人员无关。如对译文有意见或修改建议，请给我留言。
王曙(kevinwang) 2024.11.14
引言 Introduction
联邦跨部门社区开发了15种全灾种规划情景（称为”国家规划情景”或”情景”），用于国家、联邦、州和地方的国土安全准备活动。这些情景是规划工具，代表了我国面临的各种恐怖袭击和自然灾害及其相关影响。开发这些情景的目的是创建一套具有可信度的最低数量的情景，从而确定响应需求的范围，以便于准备工作的规划。
The Federal interagency community has developed 15 all-hazards planning scenarios (the National Planning Scenarios or Scenarios) for use in national, Federal, State, and local homeland security preparedness activities. The Scenarios are planning tools that represent a diverse set of terrorist attacks and natural disasters and their effects that face our Nation. The Scenarios were developed to create a minimum number of credible scenarios in order to establish the range of response requirements and to facilitate preparedness planning.
由于这些情景是为了开发响应能力和资源范围所需的最少数量，因此不可避免地遗漏了其它一些灾害。其他可能产生重大影响的事件示例包括核电站事故、工业和交通事故，以及频繁发生的自然灾害。各级政府的各类机构可以将《国家规划情景》作为参考，帮助它们确定潜在重大事件的范围、规模和复杂性。不排除各机构根据需要制定自己的情景，以补充《国家规划情景》。
Since these Scenarios were compiled to be the minimum number necessary to develop the range of response capabilities and resources, other hazards were inevitably omitted. Examples of other potentially high-impact events include nuclear power plant incidents, industrial and transportation accidents, and frequently occurring natural disasters. Agencies at all levels of government may use the National Planning Scenarios as a reference to help them determine the scope, scale, and complexity of potential major events. Agencies are not precluded from developing their own scenarios as needed to supplement the National Planning Scenarios.
这些情景反映了联邦国土安全专家经过严格分析所做的努力，并且经过了州和地方国土安全代表的审查。然而，相关部门也认识到，随着时间的推移，对这些情景进行完善和修订是必要的，以确保情景保持准确，反映不断变化的全灾种威胁状况，并具备应对国内事件所需的能力。
These Scenarios reflect a rigorous analytical effort by Federal homeland security experts, with reviews by State and local homeland security representatives. However, it is recognized that refinement and revision over time will be necessary to ensure that the Scenarios remain accurate, reflect the evolving all-hazards threat picture, and encompass the capabilities needed to respond to domestic incidents.
如何使用《国家规划情景》How to Use the National Planning Scenarios：
基于能力的规划 Capabilities-Based Planning —
在为国家应对恐怖袭击、重大灾害和其他紧急情况做好准备的过程中，不可能在所有情景下始终保持最高水平的应急准备。鉴于资源有限，管理重大事件带来的风险至关重要。在威胁不断变化和演变的环境中，构建灵活的应急能力对于使整个国家具备预防、响应和从各种重大事件中恢复的能力是至关重要的。为应对这一挑战，国土安全部（DHS）采用了基于能力的规划过程，在不确定性环境下识别适用于多种挑战和情境的能力，同时在经济框架内权衡优先事项并做出选择。作为基于能力的规划过程的第一步，情景（虽然并不详尽）提供了我们必须为之做好的准备的各种可能性。
In seeking to prepare the Nation for terrorist attacks, major disasters, and other emergencies, it is impossible to maintain the highest level of preparedness for all possibilities all of the time. Given limited resources, managing the risk posed by major events is critical. In a changing and evolving threat environment, building flexible capabilities is critical to enabling the Nation to prevent, respond to, and recover from a wide range of major events. To address this challenge, DHS has adopted a Capabilities-Based Planning process to identify capabilities suited to a wide range of challenges and circumstances in an uncertain environment, while weighing priorities and making choices within an economic framework. As a first step in this Capabilities-Based Planning process, the Scenarios, while not exhaustive, provide a range of possibilities for which we must prepare.
HSPD-8执行 HSPD-8 Implementation —
这些情景将用于执行《国土安全总统指令》（HSPD-8）中的”国家准备”政策，包括制定《国家准备目标》和《国家演练计划》。在制定《国家准备目标》的过程中，这些情景为确定所有使命领域的应急能力及其目标水平提供了基础，以便有效预防、响应和从诸如情景中描述的重大事件中恢复。对这些情景的研究揭示了一些必须完成的通用职能。
The Scenarios will be used in the implementation of the Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD)-8, “National Preparedness,” including the development of the National Preparedness Goal and the National Exercise Program. In helping to develop the National Preparedness Goal, the Scenarios help provide a basis for defining the capabilities and target levels needed to effectively prevent, respond to, and recover from major events such as those described in the Scenarios across all mission areas. Study of the Scenarios reveals a number of common functions that must be accomplished.
此外，这些情景将作为《国家演练计划》中演练设计的基础。作为演练开发的共同基础，这些情景减少了各机构在模拟相同类型事件时产生极为不同后果的可能性。虽然这些情景并非包罗万象，但它们提供了一套基本的国土安全事件及其相关影响，可以在国家层面或州和地方使用。各机构将不限于这一情景集，仍可针对当地特定的关切点进行调整。
In addition, the Scenarios will be used as the design basis for exercises in the National Exercise Program. As a common foundation for exercise development, the Scenarios reduce the possibility that agencies exercising the same basic type of event will generate widely differing consequences, which could lead to widely differing conclusions about required capabilities and readiness expectations. While not comprehensive, the Scenarios provide a basic set of homeland security events and their associated consequences that can be used at the national level or modified for State and local use. Agencies are not limited to the Scenario set and may adapt for specific local concerns.
情景的一般考虑因素 General Considerations for the Scenarios：
未来的前传开发 Future Development of Prequels —
情景第一部分（Part 1）的目标是详尽呈现响应能力和需要，而不是以威胁为基础的预防活动。针对恐怖袭击情景，国土安全部（DHS）与联邦跨部门社区合作，开发了情景的详细前传。这些前传包含关于施害者的信息，即所谓的”通用对手”（Universal Adversary，简称UA），以帮助在预防相关的规划和准备工作中更进一步。“通用对手”前传被作为情景集的第二部分（Part II）和第三部分（Part III）发布。
The goal of the Part I of the Scenarios is to flesh out response capabilities and needs, not threat-based prevention activities. For the terrorist attack Scenarios, DHS, in coordination with the Federal interagency community, has developed detailed prequels to the Scenarios. These prequels contain information about the perpetrators, the Universal Adversary (UA), that will help further prevention-related planning and preparedness activities. The UA prequels are issued as Part II and Part III of the Scenario set.
情景概要 Scenario Outline —
《国家规划情景》中的每个情景都遵循相同的通用大纲，如下所示：
| 中文 | English |
|---|---|
| 情景概览 | Scenario Overview |
| 一般描述 | General Description |
| 详细攻击情景（或没有UA时的详细情景） | Detailed Attack Scenario (or Detailed Scenario when a UA is not present) |
| 规划考虑因素 | Planning Considerations |
| 地理因素/描述 | Geographical Considerations/Description |
| 时间线/事件动态 | Timeline/Event Dynamics |
| 气象条件（适用时） | Meteorological Conditions (where applicable) |
| 假设 | Assumptions |
| 激活的使命领域 | Mission Areas Activated |
| 影响 | Implications |
| 次生危害/事件 | Secondary Hazards/Events |
| 死亡/受伤 | Fatalities/Injuries |
| 财产损失 | Property Damage |
| 服务中断 | Service Disruption |
| 经济影响 | Economic Impact |
| 长期健康问题 | Long-Term Health Issues |
情报免责声明 Intelligence Disclaimer —
虽然所开发的情景总体上反映了恐怖分子可能具备的能力和已知的作案手法，但无论是情报部门和执法部门，都未掌握任何可信的具体情报，表明此类袭击正在被策划，或相关的特工或装置被任何已知的恐怖组织所持有。
While the scenarios developed generally reflect possible terrorist capabilities and known tradecraft, neither the Intelligence Community nor the law enforcement community is aware of any credible specific intelligence that indicates that such an attack is being planned, or that operatives or agents are in place or devices are held by any known terrorist organization.
情景的相对分组 Relative Grouping of Scenarios —
根据最终用途，以往曾采用不同方案对情景进行排序，依据的标准包括可能性、伤亡人数、财产损失程度、经济影响和社会破坏程度。由于这些场景涵盖了不同程度的伤亡人数和财产损失，因此未包含所有可能导致高发病率和高死亡率的事件。
Depending on the ultimate use, various schemes have been used in the past to rank scenarios based on probability, number of casualties, extent of property damage, economic impact, and social disruption. Because the scenarios represent a range in casualties and property damage, they do not encompass every conceivable high-morbidity and high-mortality event.
多重事件 Multiple Events —
鉴于多个事件可能同时或相继发生，各组织在准备应对计划时应始终考虑应对同类型或不同类型的多重事件的需求，无论这些事件发生在同一或不同的地理位置。这些事件必然需要国土安全响应组织在多个地区、州和地方辖区之间进行协调与合作。
As there is a possibility that multiple incidents will occur simultaneously or sequentially, organizations should always consider the need to respond to multiple incidents of the same type and multiple incidents of different types, at either the same or different geographic locations. These incidents would necessarily require coordination and cooperation among homeland security response organizations across multiple regions and State and local jurisdictions.
经济影响 Economic Impacts —
在应对灾难或恐怖主义情景的决策中，若决定关闭美国与加拿大或墨西哥的边境，可能会带来巨大的经济后果。因此，在评估与事件相关的经济损失时，任何关于关闭边境的关键决策都必须考虑这些成本。这种评估可能表明，关闭边界的成本可能会超过其带来的收益，特别是在某些情况下（如流感大流行、瘟疫），关闭边境并不能有效阻止疾病的传播，而只能在有限的时间内延缓其蔓延速度。
Any decision in response to one of the disaster/terrorist scenarios to close the U.S. border with Canada or Mexico would have potentially enormous economic consequences. Thus any key decision to close a border must take into account those costs in assessing the economic loss associated with the incident. Such an assessment might indicate that border closure costs could outweigh benefits, particularly in certain cases (e.g., influenza pandemics, plague) where closing a border is not effective in stopping the spread of disease but would only delay the spread over a finite period of time.
使命领域 Mission Areas：
下列使命领域用来帮助确定情景所产生的响应需求范围。
The following Mission Areas were used to assist in scoping the response requirements generated by the scenarios.
预防/威慑 — Prevention/Deterrence – 检测、预防、先发制人以及威慑恐怖袭击和其他人为紧急情况的能力 The ability to detect, prevent, preempt, and deter terrorist attacks and other manmade emergencies
基础设施保护 — Infrastructure Protection – 保护关键基础设施免受所有威胁和危险的能力 The ability to protect critical infrastructure from all threats and hazards
准备 — Preparedness – 规划、组织、装备、训练并演练国土安全人员执行其分配使命达到国家认可标准的能力—此使命领域包括公众教育和意识的提升 The ability to plan, organize, equip, train, and exercise homeland security personnel to perform their assigned missions to nationally accepted standards—this mission area includes public education and awareness
紧急评估/诊断 — Emergency Assessment/Diagnosis – 实现并保持共用作战图的能力，包括发现事件、评估影响、预测事态发展和走向、对事件进行分类并通知政府的能力 The ability to achieve and maintain a common operating picture, including the ability to detect an incident, determine its impact, determine its likely evolution and course, classify the incident, and make government notifications
应急管理/响应 — Emergency Management/Response – 指挥、控制和协调应急响应；管理资源；提供紧急公共信息的能力—此目标包括通过事件指挥系统（ICS）、多机构协调系统和公共信息系统进行指挥和控制 The ability to direct, control, and coordinate a response; manage resources; and provide emergency public information—this outcome includes direction and control through the Incident Command System (ICS), Multiagency Coordination Systems, and Public Information Systems
灾害缓解 — Hazard Mitigation – 控制、收集并遏制灾害；减轻其影响并进行环境监测的能力—缓解措施可在事件之前、期间或事后实施 The ability to control, collect, and contain a hazard; lesson its effects; and conduct environmental monitoring—mitigation efforts may be implemented before, during, or after an incident
撤离/避难 — Evacuation/Shelter – 向整体和高风险人群提供初步警报；通知人们就地避难或撤离；提供撤离和避难支持，管理交通流量以及出入受影响区域的进出通道的能力 The ability to provide initial warnings to the population at large and at risk; notify people to shelter-in-place or evacuate; provide evacuation and shelter support; and manage traffic flow and ingress and egress to and from the affected area
受害者护理 — Victim Care – 在现场救治受害者；运送病患；在医疗机构治疗病患；追踪病患；处理、追踪并妥善保管遗体；追踪和保护病患的财物及相关证物；管理健康但焦虑的人员的能力 The ability to treat victims at the scene; transport patients; treat patients at a medical treatment facility; track patients; handle, track, and secure human remains; provide tracking and protection for patient’s belongings and related evidence; manage the healthy but anxious
调查/拘捕 — Investigation/Apprehension – 调查事件的起因和来源，识别、拘捕并起诉对恐怖袭击及其他人为紧急情况负责人员的能力 The ability to investigate the cause and source of the incident and identify, apprehend, and prosecute those responsible for terrorist attacks and other manmade emergencies
恢复/补救 — Recovery/Remediation – 恢复基本服务、企业和商业；清理环境，使受影响区域变得安全；赔偿受害者；向受害者和公众提供长期心理健康和其他服务；并在社区中恢复安全感的能力 The ability to restore essential services, businesses, and commerce; cleanup the environment and render the affected area safe; compensate victims; provide long-term mental health and other services to victims and the public; and restore a sense of security in the community